Changing my mind

This morning, while I was out for a pre-dawn ride with EMC, we were discussing this year's TDF. EMC expressed his concern that I hadn't updated my TDF comments since the last time I posted some predictions before the whole circus started. I did defend my other postings by pointing out that Defy Evolution is a purely onanistic outlet for me.

However, he did prick my conscience, so here we go. Firstly, I must add that EMC is not the carbon fibre guru who has had gender reassignment that I alluded to a few posts ago.

Looking back at my picks, I was a little wide of the mark with D Menchov, so far he's been lurking out of the top twenty, and will struggle to even make the teens. Alberto is now the man with the Tour to lose, but to me, he still has a real battle on his hands with all teams, including his own. I'm not completely certain about Mr Armstrong's newly found devotion to Alberto. There have been stranger intra-team rivalries in the Tour in the past and, usually, they have ended in tears.

In saying that, I can't see who else can rival Alberto, unless he has a day like he did in this year's Paris-Nice. Andy Schleck is the only real rival he has in the mountains, and Andy can't timetrial, but Andy has a united team. Carlos has been invisible, he did ride a very sensible climb to Verbier and shows that he can't be written off the podium yet, but he does have some ground to make up. I pick he will go on the rampage up Mt Ventoux.

Cadel, nothing else to say.

My podium pick - Contador, Armstrong, Wiggins (who would have picked that a week ago?)

A separate Tour topic is Roulston's third last week, a great result by any standards, and must be applauded. It's not the first time that a Kiwi has been top three on a Tour Stage. Eric MacKenzie won the bunch sprint in 1983 for third at Le Havre, there was a break of two stayed away taking the first two places. Eric also gained quite a few other top ten places throughout the four editions of Le Tour de France that he rode ( a couple of fifths, some sevenths and others). The picture at the top is Eric in 1983 when he was riding for Splendor. Photo, I pinched from the web, thanks to cyclingwebsite.net.nz.

Neck on block time.

Okay, it's time for Le Tour. So, what's there to get excited about this year?
Lance coming back to his old stomping ground? Pretty big call from a man not used to being viewed as fallible. So far this season he seems to have had fun, broken a bone and ridden the Giro d'Italia for the first time in his career, not a bad return to the pro ranks.
Carlos going for the back to back? Meh. He might be a nice guy, he is Mr Consistant, but he just doesn't engage me either way.
Cadel going one step higher? I'd love to see an Antipodean on the top step, but can he? With his team? His form in the Dauphine was excellent and it was great to see some aggression, but I have some nagging doubts as to what he'll be like in July.
Alberto? He's got the pedigree, he's won before, all three Grand Tours, the Giro d'Italia, Le Tour de France and the Vuelta a Espana, his TT ability has improved, he's the real deal. BUT who is going to be top dog in Astana, Alberto or Lance? Or are we going to see another twin leader implosion like T-Mobile in 2005 with Vino and de Kaiser duking it out?
My pick - Dennis Menchov. The Russian won the Giro d'Italia with a very calculated and controlled ride, pouncing on the leader's jersey in the long time trial and then hanging onto the shadow of his only real threat Danilo DiLuca to ensure the top spot. Sure, he delivered a fair bit of blood-pounding excitment with his last stage final kilometre crash, but overall he was as cool as a cucumber. He has won the Giro, he's won the Vuelta a Espana, his team are focussed and on song, when he wins Le Tour he will be the only rider of the current generation to have won both the Giro and Le Tour in a single season (last time Marco Pantani 1998) and one of six riders to ever have won all three.
All of that aside, and unlike some previous years where the latter stages of le Tour which have been pretty much a procession for GC and opportunities for breakaway specialists, come the second to last day with it's defining climb up Mont Ventoux, there still won't be a clear winner for the overall tour until the finish line of that stage has been crossed.