Changing my mind

This morning, while I was out for a pre-dawn ride with EMC, we were discussing this year's TDF. EMC expressed his concern that I hadn't updated my TDF comments since the last time I posted some predictions before the whole circus started. I did defend my other postings by pointing out that Defy Evolution is a purely onanistic outlet for me.

However, he did prick my conscience, so here we go. Firstly, I must add that EMC is not the carbon fibre guru who has had gender reassignment that I alluded to a few posts ago.

Looking back at my picks, I was a little wide of the mark with D Menchov, so far he's been lurking out of the top twenty, and will struggle to even make the teens. Alberto is now the man with the Tour to lose, but to me, he still has a real battle on his hands with all teams, including his own. I'm not completely certain about Mr Armstrong's newly found devotion to Alberto. There have been stranger intra-team rivalries in the Tour in the past and, usually, they have ended in tears.

In saying that, I can't see who else can rival Alberto, unless he has a day like he did in this year's Paris-Nice. Andy Schleck is the only real rival he has in the mountains, and Andy can't timetrial, but Andy has a united team. Carlos has been invisible, he did ride a very sensible climb to Verbier and shows that he can't be written off the podium yet, but he does have some ground to make up. I pick he will go on the rampage up Mt Ventoux.

Cadel, nothing else to say.

My podium pick - Contador, Armstrong, Wiggins (who would have picked that a week ago?)

A separate Tour topic is Roulston's third last week, a great result by any standards, and must be applauded. It's not the first time that a Kiwi has been top three on a Tour Stage. Eric MacKenzie won the bunch sprint in 1983 for third at Le Havre, there was a break of two stayed away taking the first two places. Eric also gained quite a few other top ten places throughout the four editions of Le Tour de France that he rode ( a couple of fifths, some sevenths and others). The picture at the top is Eric in 1983 when he was riding for Splendor. Photo, I pinched from the web, thanks to cyclingwebsite.net.nz.